
DIVA Trends Map
A range of technologies from sensors, ICT and robotics drives the digital transformation of organizations. DIVA seeks to analyse the existing Value Chains and identify the opportunities brought by digital technologies to the Agro-food, Forestry and Environment sectors.
A Digital Trends Map for the Agro food, Forestry and Environment sectors has been produced, taking into account existing digital value chains as a starting point to identify potentially valuable intersections between digital trends / opportunities and needs / challenges of the forestry, environment and agro-food sectors.
Drivers of changes
Drivers of Change investigate the key global issues driving change in our societies and markets”. (source)
There are a number of drivers shaping the Agrofood, forestry and environment sector, for example, OECD (2010) reported urbanization and climate change as main challenges for agriculture sector. Another study, considered population growth (Maggio et al., 2015) and increased wealth, greater purchasing power, and higher demand for processed food, as pressure sources to the food value chain (Godfray et al., 2010) and for the overuse of natural resources. Finally, globalization has led to a interconnect market and complex trade standards (Cucagna and Goldsmith, 2018).

Urbanization
Urbanization
In 2025, 5 billion of the world’s population will live in towns and cities. By 2050, 2/3 of the population will likely be urban, giving rise to new natural resource management issues.
Natural resource problems will be exacerbated by the growth of megacities of an as-yet unforeseeable size.

Population
Population
In 2050, the global population will have risen to 9.1 billion people. The least developed countries will have the biggest population share, rising from 5.4 to 7.9 billion inhabitants against 1.2 billion in the wealthy countries by 2050. This estimate is up from the last UN published figures in 2004.

Demand Shift
Demand Shift
By the middle of this century, we will watch an increased wealth, greater purchasing power, and higher demand for processed food, meat, dairy, and fish (Godfray et al., 2010).

Climate change
Climate change
The effects of climate change will primarily influence agriculture via alterations in plant growth, with alterations in water availability, nutrient availability, increased temperature and elevated CO2.

Globalization
Globalization
The Agrofood chain has become long and complex. It comprises of farmers, processors, distributors, wholesalers, traders, purchasing companies, supermarket chains, retailers, and consumers all around the world.
Business trends
To address contemporary agro food, forestry and environment challenges, DIVA TREND MAP seeks to inspire transformative innovations.
6 TRENDS HAVE BEEN SELECTED FOR THE DIVA PROJECT
Stakeholders in data sources, exploiters and consumers create a set of economic activities around the asset that has become increasingly strategic: Data.
As the Internet of Things (IoT) grows, data is collected in so many places and in such vast quantities that its potential has yet to be fulfilled. Some of the scenarios in which data assists are decision making, product tracing, safety and gaining consumer insights. It is becoming so important that many new business models heavily rely on this strategic asset.
As data becomes so valuable, concerns arise around security, privacy and ownership. Owners of data develop a reluctant attitude to share and aggregate data, leaving a lot of value for industry and a variety of research fields untouched. Technologies such as the blockchain have the potential to solve some issues by storing, sharing and verifying data securely.
Management is becoming increasingly data driven throughout every stage of the value chain with the development of Information services, decision support systems; and predictive models and more throughout every stage of the value chain. These services however should keep in mind the final goal of data: To extract value by delivering meaningful and actionable information to users. This way data helps actors have a positive impact on the main challenge of the agro food, forestry and environment sectors: sustainability.
We are looking for Digital Solutions to:
- Facilitate interoperability for horizontal and vertical collaboration of business partners
- Leverage and stimulate data aggregation that allows the generation of new scientific knowledge.
- Convert the knowledge into predictive analysis and decision support tools.
- Unlock the potential of shared data.
- Ensure data security, protection and authenticity
A digital transformation provides social and economic benefits resulting from online connections among people, businesses, devices, data and processes.
As the digital transformation unfolds, industries become smarter through communication, optimization and automation. Therefore, competitive advantage relies increasingly on technological innovation. The technology adoption among some SMEs in the agricultural industry however has been slow due to investment and a skill gap. Within the retail and marketing sectors technological innovation provides many new business opportunities, but the need of some is questionable.
Technology adoption leads to an increase of digital enablers in the value chain and provide the potential to monitor the status of products throughout a supply chain that can become increasingly complex. This allows not only the optimization of internal and external processes but also the improvement of food safety. Data is not only collected about location, but also about variables such as temperature and pH levels that will reveal information about a products quality. Subsequently, smart packaging can communicate relevant product characteristics and fulfill the consumer’s need for more information.
Some technologies such as smart tags supported by QR or Barcodes are ready for adoption. For other innovations to take place further development is required such as sufficient computational power and energy autonomy.
We are looking for Digital Solutions to:
- Facilitate the management, automation and optimization of processes internally and between operations in the value chain.
- Extract value from the traceability of products. Some of the opportunities lie in product safety and the properties of products such as packaging.
- Promote and aid the adoption of technology such as Fintech and Elearning.
More value can be extracted from resources by using them more efficiently and for longer through sharing, reusing, repairing and recycling.
It is Important in the circular economy to use resources more efficiently throughout the process and to address the current wasteful system. Initiatives to either close or narrow the loop can take place at the company level, but also through local initiatives and sector organization. An example of it can be found in the promising bio economy concept which proves that the circular economy can serve to reduce environmental as well as economic costs. It is not only about preserving value, but also about driving revenue.
The circular economy is one response to deal with higher and more volatile commodity prices. Products such as farm equipment can be provided as a service, and recycling offers opportunities as the number of consumer touch points is increased.
Closing and tightening the resource loop requires significant effort and is not an incremental innovation. Different partnerships with a variety of stakeholders are required to collaborate in order to achieve a bioregional food system that optimizes water, energy and waste.
Digital technologies are essential to guide transformations. Sharing and integrating information about the location, availability and quality of resources optimizes inputs and minimizes transaction costs and uncertainty.
We are looking for Digital Solutions to:
- Educate and create awareness about the circular economy
- Capture value from transparency by communicating origin and other product attributes
- Form networks of stakeholders to connect, collaborate and co create in a bioregional system.
- Optimize operations by reducing risks, transaction costs and uncertainty.
Digital marketplaces have led to the immediate provisioning of goods and services as well as employment becoming detached, agile and adaptable.
Delivery has become safer and more reliable because of a smaller information gap. Brick and mortar stores are transformed into web shops and consumers are experiencing same day delivery as the new norm thanks to algorithmic efficiency.
Logistics have become a competitive advantage and the mindset “can’t touch won’t buy” belongs to the past. The next generation of logistics is fueled by technologies such as 3D printing.
The connection of people through digital infrastructures has resulted in the detachment of work and workplace. Last mile food deliverers are independent and are experiencing new levels of labor flexibility. Throughout the value chain, expertise and temporary labor will be available on demand by matching supply and demand.
For such temporary jobs, individuals can acquire highly sought-after 21st century skills. Especially in the agro-food sector with the unfolding of digitization training and expertise is required. Opportunities exist to find synergy between on demand learning and on demand labor.
There is however a dark side to this “cloud-based labor”; extreme flexibility demands, uncertainty and low prices are to be feared in the new gig economy.
We are looking for Digital Solutions to:
- Provide on demand labor and learning with social responsibility in mind.
- Provide micro, small and medium enterprises market and logistic access.
- Fulfill the highly personalized demand through mass customization.
Efficiency gains are required while conserving natural resources and creating ecosystems that are resilient to climate change and market volatility.
Sustainable intensification is generally associated with the focus on intensifying the production side either through increased labor, input or technology. As the objective is to design an agri-food system that is sustainable in terms of economic, social and environmental perspectives, concepts of the circular and sharing economy are part of sustainable intensification as well.
One problem lies in the definition of sustainable. More research is required to understand all linkages, in order to reach scientifically based acceptable and shared norms that allow the implementation of cost-benefit analyses in daily management practices.
Digital Innovation Hubs aid the advancement of the sector through knowledge and technology transfer. Additionally, these Hubs provide the infrastructure for the formation and development of ideas by various actors. Other forms of open innovation are taking place such as governments opening research to agri-tech experts, the formation of multi-stakeholder communities, and supply chains collaborating to innovate.
For the durability of the system, the social aspects should not be neglected. Digital technologies need to increase access to opportunities of development through social inclusion and subsequently prevent rural abandonment.
We are looking for Digital Solutions to:
- Make cost benefit analyses based on all relevant perspectives
- Connect research to innovation and other forms of open innovation.
- Increase rural attractiveness
Sharing is about reducing ownership and increasing access by making underutilized assets and services accessible to off and online communities.
The sharing of resources like cars and houses has shown to be a viable business model. Some argue these models to be part of an access economy rather than a sharing economy as sharing implies some altruistic nature. Alternative Food Networks are somewhere in the middle as consumers and producers collaborate. These short distribution chains like self-harvest gardens and community-supported agriculture could experience new growth and increased member retention as labor intensity can be decreased and organization optimized with the implementation of digital technologies.
The demand for local food, the need for shorter distribution channels and the unsustainable food system for small farmers have led to the rise of regional and local food hubs. By sharing value creation, the competitiveness of stakeholders is enhanced as well as the condition of the community itself. Examples are the formation of brands around regions, and the attraction of talent.
There are however situations in which companies prefer horizontal collaboration abroad due to a lack of trust and therefore limited information exchange. Hybrid approaches that generate profit to accomplish social and environmental objectives have the opportunity to fill an important gap in the industry.
We are looking for Digital Solutions to:
- Increase the amount of shared resources which may have traditionally been owned
- Optimize Alternative Food Networks processes
- Facilitate value creation by regional food hubs